Thursday, February 27, 2014

Initial Screening for Stock Selection



·       Beta between .5 and 1 on average is good.

·       A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation   less than 0.5 is generally described as weak.
 
·       MACD histogram is below the zero line and begins to converge towards the zero line stock price is increasing.

When the MACD (blue line) falls below the signal line (red line) it is a bearish signal, which indicates that it may be time to sell. Conversely, when the MACD rises above the signal line, the indicator gives a bullish signal, which suggests that the price of the asset is likely to experience upward momentum.

·       Checking cash flow from financing. If it is high than also it’s not a good sign, as company is not growing instead is using OPM.
·       Adequate size of the company:
Annual Sales > $100 million for Industrial Company.
Annual Sales > $50 million for Public Utility.
·       Financial Condition:
Quick and Current Ratio > 1
Debt / Equity < 1
·       Dividends
Best record if dividends are not suspended in last 10 yrs.
·       Earnings Growth-
A minimum increase of at least one-third in EPS in the past 10yrs using 3 yrs. Average at the beginning and end.
·       Price
Price should not be more than 20 times the average EPS of last 3yrs.
·       P/E ratio * P/B ratio < 22.5.

·       ROIC (Return on Invested Capital)  = Owner Earnings / Invested Capital
Should be at least 10%and even 6% or 7% is good if company has good brand names.
Where:
Owner Earning = Operating Profit + Depreciation + Amortization of Goodwill – Federal Income Tax – Cost of Stock Options – Capital Expenditure – Income generated on unsustainable rates of return on pension funds.
Invested Capital = Total Assets – Cash + Past Accounting Charges that reduced invested capital.
·       Calculating stock value for aggressive investors-
NWC = CA – CL.
NNC = NWC – Long term Liabilities.
Advised price to buy stock = 66% of NNC / Total shares Outstanding.
·       Minimum of 50,000 shares daily trading.


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